Question 1

What is Newcomb’s Paradox and why is it so divisive?

Accepted Answer

Newcomb’s Paradox is a thought experiment involving two boxes: an open one containing one thousand dollars and an opaque one that contains either one million dollars or nothing. A super-reliable predictor has already placed the money in the opaque box based on whether they predicted you would take only that box or both boxes. The problem is divisive because it creates a clash between two types of rationality. One side argues it is logical to take both boxes because the money is already physically there, while the other argues that taking only one box is the only way to actually receive the million dollars based on the predictor's high accuracy.

Question 2

What is the difference between Causal Decision Theory (CDT) and Evidential Decision Theory (EDT)?

Accepted Answer

Causal Decision Theory, favored by "Two-Boxers," relies on the Principle of Dominance, which states that your current action cannot reach back in time to change a past event; therefore, you should take both boxes to maximize your guaranteed return. In contrast, Evidential Decision Theory, favored by "One-Boxers," focuses on the "news value" of an action. This theory suggests that your choice serves as evidence of what the predictor saw; if you choose one box, you are statistically almost certain to be the type of person the predictor rewarded with a million dollars.

Question 3

How does Functional Decision Theory (FDT) attempt to solve the paradox?

Accepted Answer

Functional Decision Theory moves away from asking what an action "causes" and instead asks what the "output of your algorithm" should be. It views the player and the predictor’s simulation as two calculators running the same math; if the "code" in your brain decides to one-box, the simulation in the predictor's head will do the same. By committing to a specific "algorithm" or character that only takes one box, you ensure that any reliable prediction of your behavior results in the million dollars being placed in the box.

Question 4

What is the "Why Ain’tcha Rich?" objection?

Accepted Answer

This is a critique leveled against Two-Boxers by those who favor taking only one box. It points out that if the "rational" strategy of taking both boxes consistently results in the player walking away with only one thousand dollars, while the "irrational" one-boxers walk away with a million, then the definition of rationality being used may be flawed. It suggests that a truly successful decision theory should prioritize the actual outcome and wealth accumulated rather than adhering to a rigid logical framework that leaves the player poorer.

Question 5

How can Newcomb’s Paradox be applied to real-world scenarios like reputation or climate change?

Accepted Answer

In the real world, the "predictor" is often our reputation or the scientific community. For example, in a career, a boss acts as a predictor who decides to "fill the box" of a promotion based on whether an employee has demonstrated the character of a committed team player. Similarly, with climate change, the script suggests that humanity often acts like "Two-Boxers," seeking small, immediate conveniences (the thousand dollars) while ignoring the "Evidential" reality that these actions correlate with a future where the "Million Dollar" box of environmental stability is empty.

Newcomb’s Paradox and Why Rational People Disagree

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